Could the Senate GOP’s Obamacare repeal lower your premiums? It depends

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., followed by Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., and Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo.

Here’s how the Senate GOP’s health-care bill could affect you.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate’s health-care reform bill will bring the uninsured rate back to pre-Obamacare levels by 2026, resulting in 22 million people not having coverage due to “lower spending on Medicaid and substantially smaller average subsidies for coverage” in the individual market.

The CBO estimates that under the Senate’s proposal, premiums will be based on a benchmark plan that includes less coverage and higher deductibles, which will mean lower premium subsidies.

The difference could be especially pronounced for baby boomers like independent consultant John Nehls, whom we met this spring. He’s worried about rates next year, because once again there will be just one insurer offering coverage on the exchange.

“Our only choice will be whatever Blue Cross decides to offer,” said the 55-year-old Knoxville, Tennessee, resident, who makes about $40,000 a year.

This year, Nehls’ exchange plan for his family of three cost $23,640, but because he was eligible for a tax subsidy his net premium was $6,240 for the year. His subsidy is based on a more generous mid-tier silver plan.

Because of his age, under the Senate plan insurers could charge him up to five times more than a younger person, and he would have to kick in more of his income toward his premium before he would be eligible for a tax subsidy.