first full week of Q4, trade talks, German data

Here are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door.

The first full trading week of the fourth quarter kicks off on Monday, and if the first few days were any indication, we’re in for some volatility ahead.

In the span of just two days the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 800 points after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates, sinking to its lowest level in more than a decade. It was also the second consecutive month that the index contracted.

But on Thursday the tide began to change. Stocks started a steady climb higher — boosted by a spike in the odds of another interest rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming October 30 meeting — which continued on Friday when U.S. unemployment data came in at its lowest print in more than 50 years.

But Thursday and Friday’s gains weren’t quite enough to erase the sell-off earlier in the week, and the Dow and S&P 500 ultimately posted their third straight week of losses.

It might feel like the U.S./China trade talks have been going on forever, but critical meetings are slated for next week.

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told members of the media on Friday that deputies in the U.S.-China trade negotiations will meet Monday, with the top level officials beginning discussions on Thursday.

There’s a lot riding on the outcome of these talks. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on more than $500 billion of Chinese goods, with another round of tariffs set to go into effect later this month. In retaliation, China has levied its own tariffs on more than $100 billion of American goods.

The United States and China are the world’s largest economies, so tensions between the two superpowers hit global markets. On Friday President Donald Trump said there’s a “very good chance” of making a deal, and that if it goes through it will be “the biggest trade deal ever made.”

“What we’re doing is we’re negotiating a very tough deal. If the deal is not going to be 100% for us, then we’re not going to make it. I will say this: China very much wants to make this deal,” the President said on Friday while addressing reporters on the White House lawn.

Germany reports August factory order data on Monday morning. Amid fears of a global economic slowdown, this number will be a key read on the health of the Eurozone’s largest economy. Last month’s numbers showed an unexpected slowdown as Trump’s trade war weighed on Germany’s foreign exports. Earlier this week economists from the Ifo Institute slashed their forecast for Germany’s 2019 GDP growth to 0.5%, down from last spring’s estimate of 0.8%.

Major events (all times ET):

2:00 a.m. German Factory Orders

10:20 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

1:00 p.m. Fed Chair Powell speaks

3:00 p.m. U.S. Consumer Credit

4:00 p.m. World Bank President David Malpass