Hurricane Irma insured loss forecast lowered by risk modeling firm

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Partially submerged boats caused by Hurricane Irma sit in the water in a marina in downtown Miami, Florida, September 11, 2017.

Hurricane Irma will cause insured losses of $20 billion to $40 billion in the U.S., according to an updated projection from risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide.

The new forecast is down from $15 billion to $50 billion U.S. insured loss range AIR gave on Saturday before the hurricane made landfall in Florida.

“Nearly the entire state of Florida has been subject to strong winds and torrential rains, and very dangerous storm surge,” the report said on Monday. “Irma’s forward motion should prevent the kind of accumulations and resulting flooding seen two weeks ago in Texas from Hurricane Harvey.”

The firm cited how Irma quickly weakened to a Category 1 storm by 2 a.m. ET Monday after making landfall as a Category 4 storm in the Florida Keys Sunday.

“AIR’s modeled insured loss estimates for the United States include wind and storm surge damage to onshore residential, commercial, and industrial properties and their contents, automobiles, and time element coverage,” the report said.

Even though the damage estimates are likely not as bad as feared, JPMorgan said Hurricane Irma will still rank among the costliest in history Monday.

“We think Hurricane Irma could be a top 5 most costly hurricane in the U.S, although the losses could be in-line-to-lower than market expectations,” JPMorgan analyst Sarah DeWitt wrote in a note to clients.