The ‘Trump trade,’ which propelled stocks to record highs after President Donald Trump’s victory, has been flipped upside down.
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, said in a note Monday that “skeptical investors have reversed between 50-75% of their Trump trades, according to our calculations.”
Stocks surged following the election on the prospects of tax reform, deregulation and fiscal stimulus. More specifically, investors flocked into financials and industrials between November 8 and January 20, with the sectors rising 15.8 percent and 8.8 percent, respectively.
Wall Street was betting that the administration would be able to easily move forward with its agenda since both the House and the Senate are Republican controlled. However, the administration has been bogged down by failed attempts at health care reform and an ongoing investigation into whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia to influence the election outcome.
“The likelihood of President Trump’s pro-growth agenda getting signed into law is fading as the Administration fends off a constant barrage of headlines,” Ablin said.
Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group also found there has been a swift reversal in the Trump trade. They said in a Friday note the best-performing Russell 1000 index stocks between Election Day and Inauguration Day have been the laggards since January 20. They also found that some of the worst post-election performers are now outperforming.
The chart below lays out the reversal:
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
“It’s a classic ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ situation,” Bespoke said.