Dwyer said, “you have the Russell 2000 breaking its 50-day moving average this week as the Dow hit a new all-time high. When that’s happened 79 percent of the time you’ve had a decline in the next two weeks by a median of about 1.5 percent.”
He said he believes there are four clear-cut signs from the market that we’ve entered a downturn:
- Extreme overbought condition for stocks
- Historically low volatility
- August seasonality (markets are down five of the last seven Augusts)
- Market history following a “hump” in the U.S. Treasury bill market
But Dwyer sees the greatest evidence that we’re already in a pullback by looking at recent movements. “The percent of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 10-day moving average has dropped into the 50 percent rage from the 90 percent range.”
Dwyer says a correction will be a buying opportunity. He says “there’s a rotation coming where you’ll come out of the no growth or slow growth trade meaning tech, overseas, consumer staples and bond surrogates.” When that happens, Dwyer says investors should dive into value or pro-growth stocks in the financial, energy, material and industrial sectors.
Despite his call, Dwyer says he is still a long term bull. He is calling for the S&P to hit just 2,510 by year’s end, only 40 points higher than we are now, but he forecasts the S&P will jump to 2,800 by the end of 2018. That would be a nearly 14 percent gain from its current level.