This year has been one of the quietest on record for the markets in terms of big and swift moves. Yet if history is an indication, volatility could soon rear its ugly head.
According to LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has averaged a reading of 11.54 in 2017—its lowest ever. This as the S&P 500 Index hasn’t seen a 5 percent pullback in over a year, its longest streak without such a decline in more than twenty years.
“This is only the sixth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has made it at least a year without so much as a 5 percent correction, and marks the longest streak since 1995,” Detrick explained.
Despite stocks hitting new record highs this week, the technician is skeptical that this trend will continue. Blue chip stocks “can go a little bit further without a 5 percent correction, maybe, but when you consider the calendar, we’ve got August and September, [there are] troublesome months coming up here,” he toldCNBC’s “Futures Now.” last week.
“The odds of going the full year without a 5 percent correction are extremely slim,” he added.
In fact, Detrick’s historical charts show that since 1950, there has been a 5 percent pullback in the market in 91 percent of years from then until now. Still, even though most years do see a correction, Detrick said that investors should actually buy the dip if it occurs.
First, optimistic expectations for earnings have Detrick believing that economic outlook is positive. Wall Street analysts are expecting earnings growth of between 6 and 7 percent for the quarter.
Secondly, history also reveals that given the S&P’s gains made in the first half of the year, the market could actually be due for another rally in the remaining half of 2017.
According to Detrick, since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has rallied over 8 percent in the first half of the year, 84 percent of the time it has also rallied by about 4 to 5 percent in the second half of the year.
Given that the S&P is currently up over 9 percent year to date, statistically the index could be headed for more record highs by the end of 2017.