This could be Netflix’s moment of truth ahead of earnings

The first FANG stock to report earnings is also the worst FANG stock this year.

Netflix, set to report after the bell Wednesday, has climbed just 6% this year as Facebook, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet have each clocked double-digit gains.

Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, says the stock now faces a moment of truth.

“It’s hard to be quite as definitive on either side of the bull-bear ledger right now,” Maley said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Tuesday. “The stock has bounced back up, and if you look at a longer term chart, it’s gotten right back up to the bottom line of its trend line going back to 2017.”

That critical level comes in at around $284.40. Netflix broke down below that level in mid-September.

“That line is also the lower line or a bottom line of a symmetrical triangle formation, so if it can get back above that bottom line, it should rally very nicely. However, if it fails once again, it should see a big sell-off, and with the earnings coming out … that’s probably going to be the catalyst,” said Maley.

Quint Tatro, president of Joule Financial, says the fundamentals do not support a major trend reversal, though.

“This stock trades 50 times forward earnings, and those earnings, yes, they’re growing annualized at very healthy clips, but they’re declining from previous earnings percentage increases. That has to do with the competitive landscape,” Tatro said during the same segment.

Earnings declined by nearly 30% in its second quarter ended June. Analysts anticipate 15% profit growth in the third quarter, according to FactSet.

“The stock is off $100 from the July high so it’s obviously under pressure and has been underperforming. My gut says we could get a decent pop on the earnings. But that’s, again, an opportunity I think for investors to, if they’re trapped, get out,” said Tatro.

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