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What to look out for


Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England (BOE).

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England (BOE).

The most important take-home from Thursday’s Bank of England (BOE) meeting is likely to be talk of what happens next.

Analysts are divided on the coming year’s BOE forecast for interest rates and monetary policy changes.

Amid a week of important economic data coming out of the U.K., the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MCP) meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged to support a fragile U.K. economy, despite mounting inflation. The question, then, is when a change might take place.

“The market is not expecting any policy change on Thursday, not so soon after the first hike in November. Instead, the market will be looking for clues in the forward guidance for when, and if, the BOE will hike next,” Kallum Pickering, senior U.K. economist at Berenberg, told CNBC on Monday.

The BOE raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade on November 2, voting to increase the benchmark rate from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent as part of what it called a “gradual and limited” cycle to counter inflation.

Economists broadly predict a 9-0 vote from the nine-member body on Thursday to hold interests rates and quantitative easing amid Brexit concerns, with very little, if any, reaction from the markets.

On the potential effect to sterling, Mike Bell, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told CNBC on Monday that he does not “expect a large move in the pound driven by the BOE meeting. Sterling is likely to continue to be driven more by news related to the Brexit negotiations, with securing a transitional deal the next key hurdle to maintain sterling at these levels.”

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