AI could lead to a nuclear war by 2040, RAND Corporation warns

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Operation Unicorn nuclear test, May 22 1970.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially result in a nuclear war by 2040, according to a research paper by a U.S. think tank.

The paper, by the nonprofit RAND Corporation, warns that AI could erode geopolitical stability and remove the status of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence.

While peace has been maintained for decades due to the notion that any nuclear attack could trigger mutually assured destruction, the potential for AI and machine-learning to decide military actions could mean that the assurance of stability breaks down, RAND researchers warned.

The researchers, who based their paper on a series of workshops with experts, said that AI in the future could encourage human actors to make catastrophic decisions. Improvements in sensory technology, for instance, could result in the destruction of retaliatory forces like submarine and mobile missiles.

AI could also tempt nations to launch a pre-emptive strike against another nation to gain bargaining power, even if they have no intention of carrying out an attack, researchers said.

“Some experts fear that an increased reliance on artificial intelligence can lead to new types of catastrophic mistakes,” said Andrew Lohn, co-author of the paper and associate engineer at RAND.

“There may be pressure to use AI before it is technologically mature, or it may be susceptible to adversarial subversion. Therefore, maintaining strategic stability in coming decades may prove extremely difficult and all nuclear powers must participate in the cultivation of institutions to help limit nuclear risk.”

The RAND paper highlights the dangers of the use of AI to take military decisions rather than the threat of autonomous drones and other so-called “killer robots.”