As far as years go, 2018 was a wild one for Tesla, Nissan, GM, Ford

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

President Donald Trump talks with auto industry leaders, including General Motors CEO Mary Barra (L) and United Auto Workers (UAW) President Dennis Williams (R) at the American Center for Mobility in Ypsilanti Township, Michigan, U.S. March 15, 2017.

“The highly-cyclical global auto industry has been hit hard this year from concerns surrounding the renegotiation of NAFTA, China trade tariffs, rising interest rates and peak demand, but we think automotive equities are poised for a better year from a performance perspective in 2019,” said CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson in a recent note. “Our belief stems from the fact that many of the concerns which have weighed on the equities have either been lifted or are in the process of being addressed.”

The National Automobile Dealers Association expects auto sales to fall below 17 million units in 2019 for the first time since 2014. Nelson has similar expectations. Rising interest rates, slowing economic growth will be major factors fueling the slowdown, though sales of profitable SUVs and crossovers will still grow, boosted in part by low gasoline prices, Nelson said.

That said, auto loans are expected to grow to 29.4 million in 2019, from 27.5 million in 2017 and an expected annual total of 28.5 million in 2018, according to an analysis from TransUnion.

“Tariffs are looming in the auto finance industry and it could potentially impact originations among certain cohorts of consumers,” the agency said in a December report. “Headwinds such as rising interest rates and oil prices could also further impact auto affordability. Despite these potential challenges, TransUnion believes other macroeconomic factors such as unemployment and GDP growth will push the auto finance industry to more growth and a continued low delinquency environment.”