Hurricane Florence could product historic storm surge of up to 20 feet

Chuck Liddy | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

National Park Service Ranger Jeff Goad views the destruction to N.C. Hwy 12 on the north edge of Rodanthe, North Carolina due to the storm surge from Hurricane Irene. 

A network of rivers and streams that extend inland from the coast could also carry the surge far inland, said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University’s department of atmospheric sciences.

“That happened in Matthew too — there was a lot of inundation pretty far inland,” he said.

So far the storm is expected to be relatively long-lived and will have all of the traits of Katrina and Matthew in abundance.

“When we talk about these hurricanes, you have your rain, wind and storm surge,” he said. “This one is going to have all three in very significant quantities.”

This contrasts with other storms, such as Harvey, which sat for days over Houston and dumped more than 51 inches of rain and killed 82 people last year. Hurricane Maria, noted for its high winds, killed 2,975 people and cost more than $60 billion in damage to Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands last year, according to cost estimates from Munich Re, an international reinsurance company.

Meteorologists forecast Hurricane Florence will slow down as it moves over land, meaning it could stall over North Carolina and dump rain for days over inland North Carolina, much of which is flat, Young said. Even if it had hit a hundred years ago, a storm like Florence would be catastrophic, but rising sea levels have lifted the water table, leaving less space for rainwater to drain.

“Any flooding issues we have today are only going to get worse,” Young said. “They are not going to get better.”