Hurricane Harvey probably shaved 1% from third-quarter growth, Goldman Sachs says

Getty Images

Flooded homes are shown near Lake Houston following Hurricane Harvey August 30, 2017 in Houston, Texas.

Hurricane Harvey, which deluged Houston with days of torrential rain and flooding, is expected to be one of the “costliest disasters in post-war U.S. history,” and a likely drag on third-quarter economic growth by a full percentage point, Goldman Sachs said on Saturday.

Costs from the Category 3 storm that hammered Texas last month will eclipse those associated with 2012’s Hurricane Sandy, the bank’s analysts wrote in a research note. Using a model that examined the 35 largest hurricanes to strike the U.S. in the aftermath of World War II, Goldman found that major natural disasters correlated closely with a “temporary slowdown” in key economic gauges.

“Modeling these effects, we estimate that hurricane-related disruptions could reduce 3Q GDP growth by as much as 1 percentage point,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, adding that the main impact would be felt in consumer spending, business inventories, housing and the energy sectors.

Accordingly, the bank forecast a “meaningful drag” on growth indicators for the next two months, which could extend to a short-lived drag on September payrolls — which could be anywhere from 20,000 to 100,000 jobs. Because of a jump in gas prices, Goldman also expects short-term price pressure that will add 0.2 percentage points to annual headline inflation.