Kavanaugh confirmation would be a GOP win, but also an election risk

Leah Millis | Reuters

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell meets with Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2018.

ORLANDO, Fla. – Suddenly, the fierce battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court presents President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans with a peculiar conflict of incentives.

By confirming Kavanaugh, the Republican-controlled Senate would cement the court majority conservatives have dreamed of. But that could also make it less likely that the Senate will remain in Republican control, strategists in both parties say.

By defeating Kavanaugh, the Senate would leave the court seat open with no guarantee that Trump could install another strong conservative to replace retired swing-vote Justice Anthony Kennedy. But Kavanaugh’s defeat could simultaneously diminish the odds that Democrats recapture a majority and seize control of the Senate agenda.

That’s a different political calculus than existed a month ago, before Christine Blasey Ford went public with her allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when they were teenagers. (Kavanaugh vehemently denies the allegations.) Then, when the Kavanaugh nomination fight was a traditional ideological clash, Republicans saw winning as the minimum necessary to preserve morale among conservatives’ base in an otherwise dispiriting midterm election season.

Now, the politics of grievance has turned that around. The hearings last week, in which both Kavanaugh and defenders like Sen. Lindsey Graham raged against what they call character assassination, brought a new level of emotional intensity to the Republican campaign.

In recent days, pollsters have reported rising interest in the election among rank-and-file Republicans. That has narrowed the “enthusiasm gap” that all year has benefited Democrats outraged by the Trump presidency.