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New Zealand election and how to play the investment risk


Bill English and Jacinda Ardern during a TV debate on August 31, 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand.

Getty Images | Michael Bradley

Bill English and Jacinda Ardern during a TV debate on August 31, 2017 in Auckland, New Zealand.

Saturday’s general election in New Zealand could see a change of rule for the first time in ten years.

The main opposition Labour Party was struggling in the polls and showed no sign of challenging the incumbent National party until an abrupt switch of leadership at the beginning of August.

Just two weeks after 37-year-old Jacinda Ardern took control of the center-Left Labour Party, one poll stunned observers by putting her level with current Prime Minister Bill English.

It was no flash in the pan. As it stood on Friday, a Radio New Zealand poll of polls had the two main parties still neck-and-neck.

A possible change of leadership in New Zealand has caught many off-guard and Swiss bank UBS has now put together a note on the election risk and the best places to safeguard assets.

UBS said Thursday there is now a “fair chance” of a change in government and that will put pressure on GDP growth, inflation and the kiwi dollar.

“Labour’s policies imply an environment of lower immigration, business confidence and a weaker housing market, all pointing to lower GDP growth.

“Inflation could also be higher due to wage inflation,” the note added.

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