RBC’s Helima Croft fearful of Venezuela impact on oil markets in 2018

Wil Riera | Bloomberg | Getty Images

An attendant sits at a closed Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) gas station in Caracas, Venezuela, on Friday, Sept. 22, 2017.

Oil traders expecting steep production losses from one of the world’s largest producers are likely to be underestimating the severity of the country’s crisis, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

In a research note published Monday, analysts at the global investment bank said while oil production in Venezuela is poised to “plunge” in 2018, the extent of its losses could be far worse than investors were anticipating.

“Given the severity of the crisis, we think market participants would be unwise to assume that Venezuelan production losses will simply mirror the several hundred-thousand barrels per day losses seen in 2014,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in the note.

Instead, the analysts said Caracas’ production losses could be at least several hundred-thousand barrels per day higher — and may even plausibly approach levels last witnessed during the Venezuelan oil strike in 2002.