The market is ‘right in the eye of the storm’

Paul Ciana, global chief FICC technical strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, says the market’s “headed right in the eye of the storm,” and there are two charts to watch that could signal some dark clouds ahead.

“Our thesis here suggests that U.S. financial conditions continue to deteriorate,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”

Ciana refers specifically to the bond market and gold as key indicators that could suggest that the second quarter could be as bumpy as the first.

On a chart of the U.S. 10-year futures, Ciana sees a “double breakout” pattern that has recently occurred. This, along with the fact that rallies in the 10-year futures have also been accompanied by high volume, has Ciana believing that the bond market could soon rally.

The strategist also sees bullish signs in the charts for gold, which is generally considered a safe haven trade once stocks start to fall. As of Thursday, gold was on pace for its longest quarterly winning streak since 2011, and according to Ciana could start second quarter on strong footing.

“6 of the last 7 big rallies in gold did have substantially high volume compared to the declines that happened before that,” said Ciana referring to a weekly chart of gold.

On the same chart, Ciana also points out that a bull flag scenario could be forming, another sign that gold may take a leg higher. “So I think with gold sitting here at about $1,320 or so, you have a great risk reward where you could probably target somewhere in the mid-1,400s if a bull flag scenario does in fact follow.”

All of this leads Ciana to believe that the market volatility seen in the early months of 2018 could be replicated in the next few months.

“Enjoy the little bit of calm in the middle of the storm, and get ready to hunker down as Q2 is probably going to be a bit more similar to Q1,” he added.

On Thursday to end last week, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all saw their first gains in three days.