Top pot analyst says weed market bigger than first thought

The cannabis industry’s rapid evolution and new strategic partnerships with mainstream brands reveal a far larger possible market for legal marijuana than investors and analysts first anticipated, according to Cowen.

“With cannabis, you’re talking about this massive step change in terms of the addressable market,” Vivien Azer said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday. “You’re bringing a $7 billion illicit market into the legal market and so it does require a different valuation framework,” she added, referring to the soon-to-be legalized recreational use of marijuana in Canada.

Azer, the only pot analyst from a major Wall Street research house, nearly tripled her 12-month price forecast on Canadian marijuana producer Tilray this week to $172 from $62 because of this realization. The new target for the stock, which trades in the U.S. on the Nasdaq, implies more than 30 percent upside from here. She also upped her forecast on Canopy Growth.

Just how big the market will get is tough to put a number on right now, but Azer cited a former Procter & Gamble executive in her report this week who estimated the market could be one day worth $500 billion.

“Our broader, big picture view of cannabis goes beyond the adult use launch in Canada,” she wrote in a report this week. “Rather, we believe this is the first step toward the establishment of cannabis as a key functional ingredient touching multiple consumer categories with four key verticals: adult use, beauty and nutraceuticals, OTC pain and sleep, and pharmaceuticals.”

Recreational use of cannabis in Canada becomes legal Oct. 17, though each of the country’s 10 provinces will be able to regulate the market within their jurisdiction independent of Ottawa.

While it’s still early days for the marijuana business, the first signs of broader uses are recognizable.

Tilray shares – which are up more than 650 percent since their July IPO – posted one of their best days ever mid-September after the company announced approval from the Drug Enforcement Administration to import weed to the U.S. for medical research.

In a move likely foreshadowing broader pharmaceutical application, the company will work with the University of California San Diego Center for Medicinal Cannabis Research to study the safety, tolerability and efficacy of marijuana for a neurological disorder.

“If this study can identify cannabinoids as a potential treatment for patients suffering from essential tremor, we can conduct further research and potentially provide alternative effective methods of relief for the high numbers of patients with Essential Tremor,” said Dr. Catherine Jacobson, director of clinical research at Tilray.

The globe’s major alcohol companies have also wasted no time exploring joint ventures with a handful of lucky cannabis producers.

Alcohol vs. Cannabis use in the U.S.